Market Overview
Weekly analysis of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market
This Week's Market Summary
GM Lads, How is everyone enjoying the bear market so far? Jk, I don't even see things as a bull or bear market anymore now, the market shifts, there's only short term selling opportunity, short term buying opportunity, and I'll abide by it.
We've seen NASDAQ, S&P, and some of the MAG 7 sell off, with the dollar surging – all because of the Trump tariffs, which seems to be the main sticking point. Global markets ended the week under pressure with a level of heightened volatility. If you look at the VIX, if you look at the move index, this is all causing a level of rising macro uncertainty. There are multiple risks converging as we head into next week.
Objectively, markets perform well when the level of uncertainty is relatively low, but when you have a wide probable array of uncertainties, it causes a level of uneasiness in the market. There are too many moving parts to even think about a sustained rally. Yes, you're going to get mechanical rotations and oscillations – I'm not saying we're just going to go straight down from here.
Bitcoin So Far
Well, would you look at that?
HTF is not looking very good is it? BTC is breaking the mid-range, and now, is in the lower range zone of $50k - $78k. A good bounce to reclaim the range above would be a nice deviation, and maybe we'd get a chance to see range top around 100k (very unlikely).
What I expect however, is a small retest on the mid-range, possibly around $79k-$82k, and it could roll down back, not to range low, but $70k level (circled). Why $70k you ask? It is the origin of the uptrend we see back in October - November 2024.
Key Trading Levels
I would do my business with size on the following area:
- Long Zone: $69k - $73k
- Short Zone: $80k - $82k (if we get the move up first)
Other than those positions, I'd do some minor scalps depending on reaction to key levels.
Macro Analysis
Multiple macro factors are converging to create heightened uncertainty:
- Trump Tariffs: The main sticking point driving market volatility
- US-China Trade Tensions: Escalating tensions adding to global uncertainty
- European Digital Tariffs: Potential targeting of US tech giants including MAG 7 companies
- FOMC Meeting: Scheduled for Wednesday, adding to market unpredictability
- CPI Data: Coming Thursday, further complicating the week ahead
These macro factors collectively suggest we may see continued volatility before any clear direction is established. Markets traditionally perform poorly during periods of high uncertainty, which is what we're experiencing now.
Market Outlook and Trading Opportunities
In terms of the calendar, we also have a level of uncertainty because on Wednesday we've got the FOMC meeting, and on Thursday we have CPI data. All in all, we have a lot of data points, so you really have to navigate this week very carefully.
Trading Strategy:
- Keep trades very short-term; avoid swing positions heading into FOMC and CPI
- For potential shorts, look for rejection at the 82.5K resistance level
- Reduce risk significantly due to expected volatility
- Be very selective and avoid overtrading in this uncertain environment
Disclaimer: This market analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading cryptocurrency involves significant risk. Always conduct your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.